Today, the momentum favors same-sex marriage. Polls show that the electorate has become more used to the idea of same-sex marriage; women in particular see it as stabilizing for society, not destabilizing.That's good news and is certainly what I see.
And, in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling, homosexuals are marrying at a fast pace. That means it is gay-marriage advocates who are defending the status quo, while traditional-marriage advocates must upset it. At the least, for many voters, the idea of voting against what is already legal could create confusion, and confusion often yields a "no" vote.
And then there's the matter of timing. Proposition 8's supporters should have put their remedial measure on a primary ballot years ago. Failing that, they should have started early enough to gather sufficient signatures to qualify the measure for last month's primary ballot, not the Nov. 4 general election ballot. That's because with no statewide offices contested, and coming after the high-turnout presidential primary, the June 3 primary was guaranteed to be a low-turnout affair (i.e., older, more socially conservative voters).
On top of that, while no one could have known precisely when the Supreme Court would rule on gay marriage, as it turned out, the May 15 decision also would have energized the traditional-marriage voters who, before the first same-sex marriage licenses were issued June 15, could have stopped the whole megillah by voting for Proposition 8 on June 3.
Putting Proposition 8 on a high-turnout November presidential election ballot is dumb. Trying to pass it once same-sex marriages have become a legal, daily occurrence throughout the state is dumber. And now, if Californians vote it down, conservatives can't blame judicial tyranny for imposing same-sex marriage on the unhappy masses.
Will Californians now vote to render those marriages invalid? I don't think so.
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